Orders posted under the U.S. Manufacturing Technology
Consumption statistical survey fell in May to $178.3-million,
down 23% from April.
However, with a year-to-date
total of $966.6-million, the 2010 USMTC figure is running 53%
ahead of its counterpart in 2009.
Peter Borden, president of the
distributors’ national organization, commented that
he’s not surprised by typical ebb and flow in capital
spending. “We have seen an additional month of substantial
orders, which helps to confirm that a sustainable recovery is
taking place, despite the buzz of those forecasting a W-shaped
rebound.
“Industry forecasts for
the year,” Borden continued, “have been revised
slightly upward by many sources and, if Congress passes the bonus
depreciation allowance, this could accelerate growth even
further.”
Member companies in
Borden’s group, the American Machine Tool
Distributors’ Assn., volunteer with others in AMT to
contribute data for the USMTC report, which covers orders for
machine tools and other factory production gear.
Regional Reports
Reporting companies’
statistics are broken down by customer region. For the
year-to-date, the Northeast is 21% ahead of 2009 at the same
time. The South, with a total of $154.2-million for the first
five months, is 87% ahead. The Midwest’s YTD figure comes
in 45% higher than last year. The Central region is 83% better;
and the West is running 34% ahead of 2009.
Order Trend
The upturned trend going
forward appears clear. One analytical tool economists use is the
12/12 Pressure Curve, which focuses on the rate of change
in the series of figures). Points on the Curve are calculated by
adding the data from the most-recent 12 months and dividing that
sum by the total of the 12 months a year ago. The results are
expressed as percentages; when plotted the slope is viewed as
predictive.
The 12-month rate of change for
the most recent USMTC statistic, May, is -30%, preceded by April
at -38% and March at -47%. That is to say that the one-year
moving average of USMTC orders is trending toward positive
numbers.
Shipments Lag Orders
For the record, now that
revised figures for the fourth quarter of last year have been
posted, American machine-tool shipments last year, at
$2,030.6-million, were the lowest since the year 2002, in which
factories sent out $2,002.1-million.
For the first quarter of 2010,
shipments came to $428.3-million. That’s down 25% from the
same quarter in 2009, and it’s half the volume of the first
quarter of 2008.